The Game Has Potential. That’s Not Enough.
Potential is a statement about the future. Investment needs evidence from the present.
Almost every game has potential in the sense that something good could happen. That is not a reason to put money or months into it. A real case needs evidence that the thing you hope for is supported by what the game already shows. The following phrases are common, and none of them is an argument on its own.
Four statements that need evidence
- “It could be huge”
- True of any game. What makes this one more likely than others? Without a reason, it is a hope.
- “TikTok could blow it up”
- A viral moment is not controllable, and a spike only helps if the game holds the players it brings. Does it?
- “We just need ads”
- Ads buy attention. They only pay off if the post-click experience retains players at a workable cost.
- “One update will fix it”
- What is the cause, and what shows that this update addresses it? An update without a diagnosis is a guess.
Turning hope into a thesis
A thesis states a cause, a change and a measurable result. For example, in general terms: new players leave at the first progression wall; a clearer path through it should lift early retention; we will check this in a small test. That can be tested. “It has potential” cannot.
Evidence that counts
| Evidence | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Stable or improving retention among new players | The core experience works |
| Players who stay and keep engaging | A loop with long-term pull |
| Organic arrivals | The game attracts people without help |
| Revenue from many players, not a few | Healthy monetisation |
| A specific, fixable problem | A plan can be tested |
| A small test that moved a metric | The thesis has support |
| A manageable codebase | Changes can be made safely |
Evidence that does not
- Peak concurrent from one event, with nothing after it.
- Praise from friends and fellow developers.
- Comparisons to a successful game in a similar genre.
- Large follower counts without activity.
- Plans that depend on traffic arriving.
Test before you invest
- State the thesis in two sentences.
- List what must be true for it to work.
- Find the quickest, cheapest way to check each item.
- Run a small test with a decision rule decided in advance.
- Invest more only when evidence appears. Stop or change the thesis when it does not.
Be honest about the unknowns
Sometimes the evidence is mixed and you decide to proceed. Make that decision knowingly, with a limit on time and money, and a date to look again. That is different from believing in a game because it feels right.
The same approach applies to acquisitions. See How to Decide Whether a Roblox Game Is Worth Acquiring.